Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cd7…db07 sports 1301 markets active 2h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,669 (-8%) realized −$2,630 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%661W / 623L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$134est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2,909
14 days−$2,606
30 days−$2,209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$1,409
other 10% −$877
crypto 3% −$188
politics 1% −$136
world 1% −$60
economics 1% −$133
culture 0% −$5
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -49.4% -54.2% 23% 23% -76.5%
≤30d 276 -13.9% -22.1% 57% 48% -23.2%
≤90d 639 -7.6% -16.4% 55% 49% -18.2%
all 1284 -7.1% -15.9% 51% 48% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 48% -17.4%
10% -24.0% 43% -25.3%
15% -31.3% 37% -32.5%
20% -38.0% 29% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$20 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$321
Realized−$2,630
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses661 / 623
Est. fees paid−$134
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1284 / 1301
History coverage206d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 1284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 94¢ $30 $48 +$18 (+61%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 43¢ 93¢ $20 $44 +$24 (+118%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 56¢ 79¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+41%)
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 67¢ 56¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Diana Shnaider 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 22¢ 17¢ $20 $15 −$4 (-23%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 48¢ 30¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-38%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 42¢ 52¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 83¢ 92¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? Yes 50¢ 26¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-47%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? Yes 19¢ 5¢ $40 $10 −$30 (-75%)
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Yes 58¢ 29¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 35¢ 12¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-67%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 33¢ 8¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 20 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $40 +$5 +13%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $10 +$4 +36%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $40 +$9 +21%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $20 +$3 +16%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Alina Charaeva Jun 17 $30 +$4 +13%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $40 +$21 +52%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Little Rock: Johannus Monday vs Aidan Mayo Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Centurion: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Giles Hussey Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Camila Osorio Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 67¢ $20 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 85¢ $30 29h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 82¢ $40 29h
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 26¢ $10 29h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 88¢ $40 29h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 73¢ $10 29h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Martyna Kubka 66¢ $10 29h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Jurij Rodionov 49¢ $20 29h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 75¢ $10 29h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Kilian Feldbausch 55¢ $10 29h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 29h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 29h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 82¢ $20 2d
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Alina Korneeva 76¢ $20 2d
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 56¢ $10 2d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Alexander Zverev 86¢ $20 2d
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Titouan Droguet 71¢ $10 2d
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 72¢ $10 2d
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska BUY Florian Broska 53¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 27¢ $20 3d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 80¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $321.27 · official $319.51 (match) · 2773 history records