Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4cd6…686f
crypto · 1074 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$956 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$956 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$956
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses606 / 625
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1231 / 1074
History coverage18d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day156.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1231 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,036
7 days−$3,793
14 days−$3,485
30 days−$956
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 91% +$1,288
other 8% +$1,697
weather 1% +$155
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $47 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $25 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $35 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $17 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $48 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $6 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $37 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $14 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 826 -37.5% -43.4% 43% 16% -22.3%
≤30d 1231 -17.4% -25.2% 49% 26% -11.6%
≤90d 1231 -17.4% -25.2% 49% 26% -11.6%
all 1231 -17.4% -25.2% 49% 26% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover156.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.2% 26% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 20% -20.1%
15% -38.9% 14% -27.8%
20% -44.9% 11% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records