Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cd3…5f3f other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$391 (+7%) realized +$391 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$396per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$67
other 12% −$649
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-46.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -41.2% -46.8% 29% 29% -21.2%
≤30d 14 -41.2% -46.8% 29% 29% -21.2%
≤90d 14 -41.2% -46.8% 29% 29% -21.2%
all 14 -41.2% -46.8% 29% 29% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.8% 29% -21.2%
10% -51.9% 29% -28.8%
15% -56.5% 29% -35.7%
20% -60.8% 29% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$536 vs −$286 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$391
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$396
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $457 −$450 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $507 −$500 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $668 +$386 +58%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $733 +$537 +73%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $511 +$1,007 +197%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $299 +$213 +72%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,927 −$1,472 -76%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $245 −$238 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 52¢ $406 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $507 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $1,054 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $668 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $1,162 27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $27 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $1,322 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $70 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $7 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $90 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $631 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 52¢ $107 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $511 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 75¢ $512 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 13¢ $455 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1,927 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $299 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $102 28h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $245 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records