Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:44:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cd2…5dfd other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$709 (-8%) realized −$707 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate42%44W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$262
sports 12% −$340
crypto 8% −$65
world 0% −$40
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +73.8% +57.3% 40% 40% +8.1%
≤30d 5 +73.8% +57.3% 40% 40% +8.1%
≤90d 8 +8.6% -1.7% 25% 25% -48.2%
all 106 -16.9% -24.8% 42% 34% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 34% -16.9%
10% -32.0% 33% -24.8%
15% -38.6% 31% -32.1%
20% -44.6% 27% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$67 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$707
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses44 / 62
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)106 / 108
History coverage225d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$33 +325%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 04 $70 −$66 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $186 −$186 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-08? Mar 09 $100 +$246 +246%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-03-09? Mar 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Genoa CFC vs. AS Roma end in a draw? Mar 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? Mar 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? Mar 07 $10 +$47 +469%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-03-06? Mar 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $50 +$64 +128%
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-02-27? Feb 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a dr Feb 13 $50 +$62 +123%
Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-02-06? Feb 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Bulls vs. Heat Feb 01 $102 −$102 -100%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Jan 22 $310 −$310 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-01-14? Jan 15 $100 +$96 +96%
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-14? Jan 15 $100 +$113 +113%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? Jan 12 $500 +$520 +104%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 04 $200 +$244 +122%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $500 +$226 +45%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $200 +$52 +26%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $300 +$288 +96%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $300 +$240 +80%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Vitória SC win on 2026-01-02? Jan 03 $50 +$44 +89%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-02? Jan 03 $50 +$32 +64%
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02? Jan 03 $50 +$38 +75%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-01-02? Jan 03 $100 +$72 +72%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-01-02? Jan 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-01-02? Jan 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-01-02? Jan 02 $100 +$79 +79%
Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02? Jan 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $19 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 5d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $6 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $20 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $50 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 77d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $186 97d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 97d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 97d
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-03-09? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 103d
Will Genoa CFC vs. AS Roma end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 103d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 29¢ $100 103d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 45¢ $50 103d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 103d
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 18¢ $30 104d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 104d
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 104d
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 105d
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $57 105d
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 105d
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-03-06? BUY Yes 9¢ $30 105d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-01? SELL Yes 72¢ $114 111d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-01? BUY Yes 32¢ $50 111d
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-02-27? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 113d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $100 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.92 · official $103.92 (match) · 189 history records