Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4ccf…cd14
crypto · 166 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$5 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$22 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$187
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses83 / 61
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions22
Markets (closed)144 / 166
History coverage16d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day37.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 22 History 144 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days+$119
14 days−$14
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 37¢ 26¢ $57 $39 −$18 (-31%)
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Knicks 61¢ 52¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-15%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? No 82¢ 90¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 68¢ 70¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 77¢ 74¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-4%)
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Houston Astros 40¢ 90¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+124%)
Scotland leading at halftime? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+6%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Houston Astros 20¢ 43¢ $3 $5 +$3 (+115%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Las Vegas Aces 84¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Spread: Dallas Wings (-3.5) PortlandFire 57¢ 72¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will 130 to 159 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026? No 97¢ 76¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Will 280 to 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026? No 96¢ 76¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5 Under 86¢ 78¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 167.5 Under 64¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will 250 to 279 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026? No 97¢ 79¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Knicks 57¢ 55¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 169.5 Under 69¢ 82¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Spurs 56¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire PortlandFire 49¢ 34¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 44¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 Jun 14 $30 +$20 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $60 +$3 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $60 +$5 +9%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $12 +$6 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$20 +49%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $19 +$8 +40%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $9 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$213 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$24 +78%
CSD Colo-Colo leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$33 +157%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $20 +$6 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$3 +13%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $3 −$1 -40%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $7 +$1 +13%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $9 −$7 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $31 +$13 +41%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $21 +$7 +32%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $45 +$34 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$15 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$30 +593%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 80% −$56
sports 16% +$142
other 4% −$82
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Knicks 57¢ $2 21m
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 56¢ $1 22m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 44¢ $1 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 36m
Spread: Dallas Wings (-3.5) BUY PortlandFire 57¢ $3 37m
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 49¢ $2 39m
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 41m
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Knicks 61¢ $40 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 51m
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 64¢ $2 58m
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 169.5 BUY Under 69¢ $2 58m
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5 BUY Under 86¢ $3 58m
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 40¢ $5 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 20¢ $3 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 68¢ $12 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 84¢ $3 1h
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +34.2% +21.4% 63% 42% -2.1%
≤30d 144 +13.6% +2.8% 58% 44% -9.3%
≤90d 144 +13.6% +2.8% 58% 44% -9.3%
all 144 +13.6% +2.8% 58% 44% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover37.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.8% 44% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -7.1% 36% -18.0%
15% -16.0% 31% -25.9%
20% -24.3% 26% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.64 · official $186.64 (match) · 736 history records