Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4C 0x4ccc…77ab sports 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,750 (-14%) realized −$3,429 · open −$1,321
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%45W / 38L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$396per market
Trades / day61.4pace
Fees−$762est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$5,154
other 1% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -17.5% -25.4% 54% 43% -19.3%
≤30d 83 -17.5% -25.4% 54% 43% -19.3%
≤90d 83 -17.5% -25.4% 54% 43% -19.3%
all 83 -17.5% -25.4% 54% 43% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.4% 43% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -32.5% 31% -27.0%
15% -39.0% 22% -34.1%
20% -45.0% 14% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$529) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$274 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$3,429
Unrealized−$1,321
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses45 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$762
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage7d
Avg bet$396
Trades / day61.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 70¢ 0¢ $1,050 $1 −$1,049 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 50¢ 0¢ $272 $0 −$271 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $325 +$381 +117%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $255 −$244 -96%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $712 −$187 -26%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $642 −$565 -88%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $462 +$30 +7%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $510 −$461 -90%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $511 −$345 -68%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $1,393 +$140 +10%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $795 −$795 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $615 +$563 +92%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $100 −$94 -93%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $201 +$18 +9%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 18 $501 +$25 +5%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 17 $88 −$82 -93%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 17 $303 −$303 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 17 $318 −$318 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,243 −$1,243 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $818 +$324 +40%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $291 +$204 +70%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $423 +$262 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $105 +$22 +21%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $60 −$56 -94%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $88 +$11 +12%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $706 +$293 +42%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $500 +$161 +32%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $586 −$375 -64%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $154 −$47 -30%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $4 +$1 +30%
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Jun 16 $588 +$114 +19%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $123 −$123 -100%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 16 $557 −$492 -88%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $591 −$591 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $164 −$144 -88%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $101 +$30 +30%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $41 −$27 -66%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $510 +$412 +81%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $188 +$89 +47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $416 +$75 +18%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$5 +11%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $251 +$111 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $6 +$5 +95%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $6 +$1 +21%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover SELL Carlos Sanchez Jover 15¢ $148 1m
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover SELL Carlos Sanchez Jover 31¢ $558 33m
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 13¢ $27 57m
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 11¢ $298 1h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola SELL Shintaro Mochizuki 6¢ $6 1h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola SELL Shintaro Mochizuki 6¢ $0 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp SELL Botic van de Zandschulp 2¢ $77 1h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 34¢ $255 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 5¢ $103 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 4¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 40¢ $284 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 25¢ $134 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 25¢ $8 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 25¢ $75 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 25¢ $33 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL KT Rolster Challengers 98¢ $493 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 3¢ $49 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 92¢ $462 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 30¢ $510 2h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 36¢ $204 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL KOLESIE 9¢ $151 2h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 49¢ $524 2h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 46¢ $508 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 2¢ $8 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 50¢ $455 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 56¢ $32 3h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY KOLESIE 28¢ $511 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 70¢ $27 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 70¢ $846 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 70¢ $46 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.02 · official $1.02 (match) · 466 history records