Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:33:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4ccb…32d2 crypto 768 markets active 4d ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate55%439W / 356L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day89.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$83
14 days−$86
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -24.0% -31.3% 48% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 758 -2.8% -12.1% 55% 4% -10.1%
≤90d 795 -2.0% -11.3% 55% 5% -10.1%
all 795 -2.0% -11.3% 55% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 5% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 1% -18.7%
15% -27.6% 1% -26.6%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses439 / 356
Open positions0
Markets (closed)795 / 768
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day89.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 795 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $44 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $44 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $43 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $43 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $43 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $43 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $44 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $43 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $43 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $43 −$3 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records