Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:27:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cc8…5e6b world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% $0
other 27% $0
politics 7% +$1
finance 7% +$1
sports 7% −$5
culture 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +0.0% -9.5% 14% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 14 +0.0% -9.5% 14% 0% -9.4%
all 36 -0.3% -9.8% 31% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 3% -10.0%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage471d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $73 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 01 $21 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $42 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 29 $42 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $42 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $38 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $10 $0 -4%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 25 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $0 $0 +12%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 23 $9 $0 +4%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $8 $0 +5%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $10 $0 -0%
Oral Roberts vs. UMKC Mar 04 $14 −$5 -32%
LSU vs. Kentucky Mar 04 $15 −$1 -4%
Holy Cross vs. Lafayette Mar 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'terrible' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $35 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $35 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $38 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $38 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $23 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $15 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $5 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $34 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $33 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 12d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 12d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $43 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $42 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $42 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $1 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $42 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $25 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records