Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4C 0x4cc3…7552 sports 110 markets active 3h ago coverage 156d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 155d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$173,492 (+21%) realized +$172,697 · open +$795
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate59%64W / 44L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,400per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$1,464est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$12,387now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 156d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% +$27,907
other 29% −$8,318
politics 19% +$1,362
economics 8% +$479
world 7% +$4,010
culture 0% −$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.8% -11.2% 71% 57% +1.3%
≤30d 13 -15.3% -23.4% 62% 46% +3.4%
≤90d 42 +3.9% -6.0% 67% 55% -0.4%
all 108 -7.5% -16.4% 59% 44% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 44% -6.7%
10% -24.4% 32% -15.7%
15% ← realistic here -31.7% 31% -23.8%
20% -38.4% 22% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$9,359) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
22.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,512 vs −$3,170 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$12,387
Realized+$172,697
Unrealized+$795
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses64 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$1,464
Open positions2
Markets (closed)108 / 110
History coverage156d ⚠
Avg bet$7,400
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 69¢ 80¢ $7,509 $8,651 +$1,143 (+15%)
Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $1M before 2027? No 88¢ 80¢ $4,084 $3,736 −$348 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21,575 +$15,925 +74%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $22,295 +$2,110 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $17,800 +$2,200 +12%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10,097 −$10,097 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7,654 −$7,654 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $12,250 +$5,250 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8,682 +$4,218 +49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $21,789 +$1,843 +8%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10,776 −$1,119 -10%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $650 −$644 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $15,052 +$8,918 +59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $13,461 +$6,104 +45%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $4,652 −$4,610 -99%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 19 $5,137 +$221 +4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $8,936 −$8,936 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $1,724 +$5 +0%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $690 +$810 +117%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $3,796 +$1,404 +37%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Apr 16 $30,030 +$4,446 +15%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 15 $5,757 +$851 +15%
76ers vs. Pacers Apr 11 $385 +$48 +12%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs ENCE Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Gr Apr 08 $2,452 −$2,452 -100%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-6.5) Apr 08 $8,546 −$4,649 -54%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 07 $9,470 −$2,046 -22%
Spread: Thunder (-23.5) Apr 06 $2,415 +$1,872 +78%
Spread: Bucks (-7.5) Apr 06 $2,800 +$2,200 +79%
Grizzlies vs. Bucks Apr 05 $3,424 $0 +0%
Suns vs. Bulls Apr 05 $8,700 +$100 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 04 $3,975 +$3,319 +84%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees Apr 04 $6,000 +$4,000 +67%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals Apr 04 $3,550 +$1,450 +41%
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 03 $4,215 −$4,215 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks Apr 03 $6,200 −$6,200 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Mar 31 $3,295 +$644 +20%
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals Mar 31 $3,000 +$2,000 +67%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 28 $2,500 +$2,500 +100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Mar 27 $1,350 +$710 +53%
NRFI: New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants Mar 26 $14,084 +$9,788 +70%
Morelia: Stefan Kozlov vs Andres Martin Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs French Flair (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Mar 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Morelia: Marc Polmans vs Facundo Mena Mar 24 $49 +$51 +105%
Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Taylor Fritz Mar 24 $57 +$43 +75%
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Mar 23 $3,590 −$3,590 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Stars Mar 23 $4,415 −$4,415 -100%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks Mar 22 $9,900 +$100 +1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 22 $9,359 +$384 +4%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 22 $2,320 +$1,680 +72%
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Mar 22 $645 +$179 +28%
Devils vs. Rangers Mar 19 $3,343 +$1,056 +32%
Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during the 2026 State of the Un Mar 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $139 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $5 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $64 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $25 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $3 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $3 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $28 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $64 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $1 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $11 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $25 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $3 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $127 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $4 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $41 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $255 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $13 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $11 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $64 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $15 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $37 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $25 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $3 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $6 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $11 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $25 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $3 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $7 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $127 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $13 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,387.04 · official $12,387.04 (match) · 3500 history records