Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4C 0x4cba…999a crypto 20 markets active 3d ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$49 (-38%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$36
world 8% −$10
other 7% −$1
sports 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-58.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -38.3% -44.2% 36% 36% -36.0%
≤30d 14 -38.3% -44.2% 36% 36% -36.0%
≤90d 14 -38.3% -44.2% 36% 36% -36.0%
all 19 -54.3% -58.6% 26% 26% -47.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.6% 26% -47.0%
10% -62.6% 26% -52.0%
15% -66.2% 21% -56.7%
20% -69.5% 21% -60.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -99% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage116d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Feb 19 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 19 $3 −$3 -95%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Feb 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 118d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 118d
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.65 · official $7.65 (match) · 31 history records