Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:03:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0
score
4C 0x4cb6…764c sports 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,870 (+12%) realized +$3,870 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate56%54W / 42L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$339per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$767est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$335
7 days+$335
14 days+$335
30 days+$2,960
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,553
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +29.0% +16.8% 67% 67% +24.4%
≤30d 55 +13.6% +2.8% 60% 40% +5.9%
≤90d 96 +23.7% +11.9% 56% 35% +0.8%
all 96 +23.7% +11.9% 56% 35% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.9% 35% +0.8%
10% +1.2% 19% -8.8%
15% -8.6% 14% -17.7%
20% -17.5% 10% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$579) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +40% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$19 · ×4.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.5 per $1 lost it wins $5.5
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,870
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses54 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$767
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage43d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $304 +$201 +66%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $582 +$134 +23%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $8 $0 -2%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $254 +$8 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $382 +$12 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $785 −$44 -6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$1 -15%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $385 +$48 +12%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $117 −$42 -36%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $355 +$35 +10%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $817 +$83 +10%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $193 +$39 +20%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $558 −$58 -10%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $390 −$6 -2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $791 +$333 +42%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $305 +$45 +15%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $579 +$26 +5%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $929 +$73 +8%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $44 −$28 -63%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $271 −$58 -22%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $145 +$116 +80%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $41 +$4 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $370 +$28 +8%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $298 −$18 -6%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $840 +$28 +3%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $29 −$9 -30%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $31 +$166 +540%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $46 +$44 +95%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $626 +$124 +20%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $100 −$70 -70%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $782 +$140 +18%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $579 −$19 -3%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $51 +$19 +38%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $383 +$15 +4%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $183 +$78 +42%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $678 +$190 +28%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $785 +$123 +16%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner May 31 $708 −$14 -2%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner May 31 $6 $0 -6%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $141 +$88 +63%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 31 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $373 +$42 +11%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $1,103 +$46 +4%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $337 −$5 -2%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner May 30 $341 +$69 +20%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner May 30 $204 −$2 -1%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner May 30 $428 +$294 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 80¢ $129 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 80¢ $8 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 80¢ $262 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 41¢ $206 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 71¢ $105 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 65¢ $11 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 65¢ $7 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 65¢ $8 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 65¢ $22 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 65¢ $7 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 65¢ $17 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 65¢ $17 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 65¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 88¢ $440 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 66¢ $332 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 55¢ $265 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 60¢ $11 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $134 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $102 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $11 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $3 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 83¢ $8 35h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $8 35h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Top Esports 52¢ $205 14d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Top Esports 52¢ $4 14d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Top Esports 52¢ $1 14d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Top Esports 52¢ $1 14d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Top Esports 52¢ $1 14d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Top Esports 52¢ $21 14d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Top Esports 54¢ $3 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 713 history records