Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:56:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4C 0x4cb3…1b05 other 95 markets active 5d ago coverage 352d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$77 (+3%) realized +$32 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate76%67W / 21L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$956now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$33
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$35
sports 23% −$6
world 13% +$26
politics 8% −$1
crypto 4% +$2
tech 1% +$6
economics 1% +$5
culture 0% $0
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.6% -32.7% 25% 0% -21.8%
≤30d 17 -23.3% -30.6% 41% 24% -11.2%
≤90d 19 -24.7% -31.8% 42% 26% -11.0%
all 88 -8.3% -17.1% 76% 32% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 32% -8.4%
10% -25.0% 12% -17.1%
15% -32.2% 8% -25.1%
20% -38.9% 5% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

352d coverage
Net worth$956
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses67 / 21
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions7
Markets (closed)88 / 95
History coverage352d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x China Military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $183 $186 +$3 (+2%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 87¢ 92¢ $174 $185 +$12 (+7%)
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $172 $181 +$9 (+5%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 82¢ 86¢ $164 $172 +$8 (+5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $88 $94 +$6 (+7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $85 $90 +$6 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $27 −$10 -37%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $29 −$16 -53%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $71 −$11 -15%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $117 +$3 +2%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 −$24 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $27 −$27 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +50%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $65 +$55 +85%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $46 +$54 +119%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $32 +$22 +68%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $31 +$2 +5%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $22 −$6 -29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +9%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 27 $8 +$2 +28%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? Jan 05 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $4 +$1 +28%
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration this year? Jan 05 $10 $0 +5%
Will Trump deport Elon Musk in 2025? Jan 05 $10 $0 +5%
America Party wins a federal or gubernatorial election in 2025? Jan 05 $10 $0 +5%
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? Jan 05 $14 +$2 +18%
China x India military clash by December 31? Jan 05 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jan 05 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 05 $19 +$1 +5%
US forces in Iran in 2025? Jan 05 $18 +$2 +11%
US x Russia military clash by December 31? Jan 05 $19 +$1 +5%
Macron out in 2025? Jan 05 $19 +$1 +8%
US forces in Yemen in 2025? Jan 05 $18 +$2 +10%
Is Jeffrey Epstein alive? Jan 05 $20 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 05 $14 +$6 +46%
Will Trump jail Biden family member? Jan 05 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? Jan 05 $5 +$5 +117%
Obama arrested in 2025? Jan 05 $10 $0 +5%
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? Jan 05 $9 +$1 +11%
China x Philippines military clash by December 31? Jan 05 $9 +$1 +7%
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? Jan 05 $8 +$2 +18%
Will TikTok be banned in 2025? Jan 05 $8 +$2 +25%
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run in 2025? Jan 05 $10 $0 +5%
GTA VI released in 2025? Jan 05 $9 +$1 +5%
Will Trump resign in 2025? Jan 05 $10 $0 +4%
China coup attempt in 2025? Jan 05 $19 +$1 +4%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Jan 05 $18 +$2 +11%
Modi out in 2025? Jan 05 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Jan 05 $17 +$3 +19%
Will Bitcoin hard fork before 2026? Jan 05 $18 +$2 +12%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Jan 05 $28 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 29¢ $17 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $27 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 20¢ $14 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $29 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $34 6d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $37 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $15 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $65 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $6 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $8 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $78 6d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 7d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 7d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $27 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $28 7d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 7d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $18 7d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $37 7d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $2 8d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 9d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $46 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 10d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 75¢ $4 10d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 10d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $29 10d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $22 10d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $4 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $955.90 · official $954.90 (match) · 370 history records