Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:22:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4C 0x4cb0…0cbe crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$21 (-14%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 241d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$16
tech 13% −$20
other 5% $0
world 3% −$5
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-47.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -26.8% -33.8% 33% 33% +3.0%
≤30d 15 -26.8% -33.8% 33% 33% +3.0%
≤90d 18 -39.0% -44.8% 28% 28% -6.9%
all 19 -42.2% -47.7% 26% 26% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.7% 26% -16.6%
10% -52.7% 26% -24.6%
15% -57.3% 26% -31.9%
20% -61.5% 26% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$6 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage241d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$18 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$8 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$10 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end by October 31? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will NVIDIA reach $216 in November? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $39 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 3h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 3h
Will NVIDIA reach $216 in November? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 218d
Will NVIDIA reach $216 in November? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 222d
Will NVIDIA reach $216 in November? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 222d
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 222d
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 235d
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 236d
Will the Government shutdown end by October 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 241d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.06 · official $7.06 (match) · 36 history records