Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4C 0x4cb0…118b crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$354 (-6%) realized −$354 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$540per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$355
14 days−$354
30 days−$354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$3
other 35% −$2
sports 6% −$355
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.0% -32.1% 50% 0% -26.7%
≤30d 10 -10.0% -18.6% 50% 0% -16.1%
≤90d 10 -10.0% -18.6% 50% 0% -16.1%
all 10 -10.0% -18.6% 50% 0% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -16.1%
10% -26.3% 0% -24.1%
15% -33.5% 0% -31.4%
20% -40.0% 0% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$119 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$532
Realized−$354
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage13d
Avg bet$540
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $532 $532 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $510 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $538 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $358 −$355 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $465 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $560 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $505 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $440 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10AM ET Jun 06 $560 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $510 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $460 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $531.74 · official $531.74 (match) · 26 history records