Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:20:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4C 0x4cad…e203 crypto 401 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (476 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,591 (-35%) realized −$3,580 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate29%109W / 270L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day476.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$549now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$285
other 14% +$441
sports 10% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (476 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 379 -13.3% -21.5% 29% 11% -7.6%
≤30d 379 -13.3% -21.5% 29% 11% -7.6%
≤90d 379 -13.3% -21.5% 29% 11% -7.6%
all 379 -13.3% -21.5% 29% 11% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover476.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.5% 11% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.0% 5% -16.4%
15% -35.9% 4% -24.5%
20% -42.2% 3% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×3.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$549
Realized−$3,580
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses109 / 270
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions22
Markets (closed)379 / 401
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day476.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 379 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 56¢ 52¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 61¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+13%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 76¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Over 58¢ 57¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Türkiye 72¢ 70¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 37¢ 36¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 2 Australia? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 40¢ 39¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$20 -40%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$15 +152%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 +$84 +83%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$3 +12%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $25 +$24 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $25 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $25 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 72¢ $25 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 56¢ $51 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $25 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 37¢ $25 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 11h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 58¢ $16 11h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 63¢ $18 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 15h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 15h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 68¢ $18 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $548.91 · official $548.91 (match) · 3500 history records