Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:33:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cac…a026 sports 472 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%123W / 329L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$54
14 days−$57
30 days−$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$110
other 17% −$118
crypto 12% −$5
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -13.5% -21.7% 9% 9% -42.7%
≤30d 51 -48.7% -53.6% 12% 12% -61.6%
≤90d 153 -38.1% -44.0% 28% 28% -16.4%
all 452 -22.6% -30.0% 27% 25% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 25% -10.1%
10% -36.7% 23% -18.7%
15% -42.8% 20% -26.5%
20% -48.4% 17% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses123 / 329
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions20
Markets (closed)452 / 472
History coverage105d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 452 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $61 $64 +$3 (+5%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+75%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+69%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-54%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $18 −$17 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 +$29 +200%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$46 +1504%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-09? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Jeju SK FC (-1.5) May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? May 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Bucheon FC 1995 (-1.5) May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5) May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-24? May 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Molde FK end in a draw? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (-1.5) May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? May 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Aalesunds FK win on 2026-05-25? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-25? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-24? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tatsuro Taira win by KO or TKO? May 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5) May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-24? May 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-25? May 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car May 26 $33 −$33 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 24 $10 +$14 +137%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score May 24 $6 +$4 +70%
Will SC Paderborn achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundeslig May 21 $5 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $46 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $18 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 24¢ $3 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $4 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $5 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $7 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $3 5d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5d
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $43 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 6d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) SELL Australia 99¢ $49 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $11 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $2 7d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia $3 7d
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Haiti $2 7d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco $3 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 7d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.27 · official $80.28 (match) · 1205 history records