Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cab…d6c7 weather 74 markets active 20h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$124 (-31%) realized −$124 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate26%19W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$101
14 days−$116
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 85% −$147
other 15% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -39.1% -44.9% 41% 41% -47.4%
≤30d 74 -37.1% -43.1% 26% 22% -41.4%
≤90d 74 -37.1% -43.1% 26% 22% -41.4%
all 74 -37.1% -43.1% 26% 22% -41.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.1% 22% -41.4%
10% -48.6% 14% -47.0%
15% -53.5% 11% -52.1%
20% -58.1% 9% -56.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses19 / 55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage22d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $69 −$69 -99%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 16 $61 +$9 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -58%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 14 $16 −$9 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 14 $10 −$9 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 85°F or below on June 11? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June Jun 13 $4 −$2 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 10? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -79%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $0 $0 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$8 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$13 +240%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$5 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +295%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 8? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 8? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 09 $5 +$19 +368%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 26? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 26? Jun 08 $8 −$2 -29%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 29? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on May 29? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 26? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 64-65°F on May 28? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 28? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 71°F or below on May 28? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on May 28? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 25? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 61°F or below on May 28? May 28 $0 $0 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 28? May 28 $0 $0 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on May 28? May 28 $0 $0 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on May 28? May 28 $3 −$2 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $69 19h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 70¢ $70 19h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $8 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 97¢ $8 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $7 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 97¢ $7 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 216 history records