Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:30:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4C 0x4ca7…4890 crypto 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-2%) realized −$32 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%42W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$399now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days+$64
14 days+$64
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$8
crypto 22% −$72
other 14% +$63
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.0% -8.6% 55% 45% -5.0%
≤30d 20 +1.0% -8.6% 55% 45% -5.0%
≤90d 73 -11.2% -19.7% 58% 55% -9.7%
all 73 -11.2% -19.7% 58% 55% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 55% -9.7%
10% -27.4% 53% -18.4%
15% -34.4% 27% -26.3%
20% -40.8% 21% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$19 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$399
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses42 / 31
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions8
Markets (closed)73 / 81
History coverage60d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 67¢ 68¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Under 61¢ 60¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $153 +$63 +41%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$53 +104%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $51 +$35 +69%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 −$9 -8%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $26 +$17 +66%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $10 −$8 -80%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$43 -84%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Wil Jun 20 $10 +$20 +193%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $205 +$153 +74%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $257 −$257 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $205 +$153 +74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 24 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 67¢ $51 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $102 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 3h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $51 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $161 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 56¢ $55 9h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $51 29h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $102 29h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 58¢ $51 42h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 48¢ $51 47h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $94 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $102 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $26 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $0 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $0 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $0 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $0 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $0 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $0 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $0 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $0 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $0 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $0 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $398.86 · official $398.86 (match) · 191 history records