Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4C 0x4ca2…2abf other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 247d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+13%) realized +$65 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 247d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$21
sports 28% +$34
world 3% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +47.3% +33.3% 100% 100% +31.9%
≤30d 3 +47.3% +33.3% 100% 100% +31.9%
≤90d 3 +47.3% +33.3% 100% 100% +31.9%
all 5 -11.6% -20.0% 60% 60% +25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 60% +25.5%
10% -27.7% 60% +13.5%
15% -34.7% 60% +2.5%
20% -41.1% 20% -7.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +39% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$4 · ×6.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.01 per $1 lost it wins $9.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage247d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 54¢ $120 $94 −$26 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $87 +$34 +40%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $54 +$29 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $36 +$17 +48%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? Oct 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? Oct 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $121 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $121 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $87 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $54 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $36 30h
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 246d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 246d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.33 · official $94.33 (match) · 9 history records