Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

4C 0x4ca0…9e43 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 212d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$36 (-10%) realized −$65 · open +$29

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$87per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 212d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-20.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	3	-12.1%	-20.5%	67%	67%	-20.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-20.5%	67%	-20.5%
10%	-28.1%	33%	-28.1%
15%	-35.0%	33%	-35.0%
20%	-41.4%	33%	-41.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$32 vs −$100 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.64 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage

Net worth$76

Realized−$65

Unrealized+$29

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage212d

Avg bet$87

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	60¢	97¢	$47	$76	+$29 (+62%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Rangers vs. Avalanche	Nov 21	$100	+$51	+51%
Nuggets vs. Pelicans	Nov 20	$100	+$12	+12%
Hornets vs. Pacers	Nov 19	$100	−$100	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$47	1h
Rangers vs. Avalanche	SELL Avalanche	100¢	$151	210d
Rangers vs. Avalanche	BUY Avalanche	66¢	$100	211d
Hornets vs. Pacers	BUY Hornets	54¢	$100	212d
Nuggets vs. Pelicans	BUY Nuggets	89¢	$100	212d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.88 · official $75.88 (match) · 6 history records