Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c9b…e74a
sports · 2147 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$70 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$71 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$34
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses914 / 1226
Est. fees paid−$161
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2140 / 2147
History coverage202d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 3 History 2140 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,725
7 days−$1,948
14 days−$844
30 days−$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2026-04-18? Yes 50¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Red Wings vs. Senators Senators 53¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Penguins vs. Red Wings Red Wings 56¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Spread: Heat (-7.5) Heat 55¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Stars vs. Ducks Stars 20¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-01-17? Yes 47¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Yes 40¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Flames vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5 Over 52¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bruins vs. Sabres Sabres 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō end in a draw? No 35¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Mali win on 2025-12-22? Yes 55¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Will Preston North End FC win on 2026-03-06? Yes 45¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Canucks vs. Kraken Kraken 51¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-02-21? No 55¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? No 26¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Pelicans vs. Rockets Pelicans 21¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-22? No 38¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Grizzlies 31¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Blues vs. Sabres Sabres 54¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Maple Leafs vs. Stars Maple Leafs 29¢ $126 $0 −$126 (-100%)
Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-05-24? Yes 49¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Blues vs. Sabres Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Utah vs. Sharks Jun 13 $80 −$24 -30%
Will Preston North End FC win on 2025-11-05? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Leeds United vs. Tottenham end in a draw? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Kings Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal vs. Tottenham end in a draw? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Devils vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Greece win on 2025-10-09? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2025-10-10? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Flames vs. Blues Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Southampton FC win on 2025-10-18? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Metz vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Panthers vs. Sharks Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Florida Gators vs. Ole Miss Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Norwich City FC win on 2025-11-01? Jun 13 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Leeds United vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Hawks Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Jets vs. Sharks Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-11-06? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Madrid vs. Villarreal end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Stars vs. Canucks Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Red Wings vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-11-06? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Swiss Indoors Basel: Valentin Royer vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-03? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Oilers Jun 13 $70 −$70 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-11-22? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Manchester United vs. Brighton end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2025-10-24? Jun 13 $86 −$86 -100%
Sabres vs. Avalanche Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Arkansas vs. LSU Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-3.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
76ers vs. Bulls Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Suns vs. Nets Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Jets Jun 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-5.5) Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Patriots vs. Buccaneers Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-23? Jun 13 $118 −$118 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Blues: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Fiorentina win on 2025-11-09? Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Japan win on 2025-11-14? Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Jaguars vs. Raiders Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Stars vs. Senators Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 69% +$1,262
other 31% +$1,463
world 0% +$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 46¢ $19 5m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 54m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 63¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 9h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 23¢ $31 10h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 32¢ $26 12h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $101 12h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 17¢ $15 13h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 30¢ $31 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 53¢ $203 14h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 33¢ $49 15h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $51 23h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $23 34h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $101 36h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 36h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $51 37h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 13¢ $12 37h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates $3 37h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY 23¢ $15 38h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 20¢ $19 39h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 40¢ $51 39h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 40¢ $19 47h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 48¢ $30 47h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 60¢ $101 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 12¢ $12 2d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 36¢ $41 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 38¢ $31 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 28¢ $36 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 98¢ $118 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 49¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -31.9% -38.4% 24% 24% -52.4%
≤30d 280 +10.0% -0.4% 44% 44% -12.8%
≤90d 689 +6.9% -3.2% 43% 43% -9.4%
all 2140 -0.1% -9.7% 43% 43% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 43% -9.4%
10% -18.3% 42% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 42% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 41% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.58 · official $48.60 · 3500 history records