Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:39:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c9b…9dc7 world 199 markets active 0h ago coverage 668d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,487 (-4%) realized −$8,485 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate59%116W / 82L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,033per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$195est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,960
7 days−$7,860
14 days−$4,673
30 days−$6,468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$7,061
crypto 20% +$340
finance 6% −$228
other 4% +$341
sports 3% −$795
politics 3% +$66
economics 2% −$1,188
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -35.9% -42.0% 50% 17% -74.9%
≤30d 16 -27.3% -34.2% 44% 12% -31.3%
≤90d 83 -23.8% -31.0% 46% 19% -18.7%
all 198 -5.5% -14.5% 59% 30% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 30% -13.0%
10% -22.7% 22% -21.3%
15% -30.2% 7% -28.9%
20% -37.0% 6% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$1,167) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$346 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

668d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$8,485
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses116 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$195
Open positions1
Markets (closed)198 / 199
History coverage668d
Avg bet$1,033
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $7,690 −$6,080 -79%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $300 +$20 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $881 −$647 -73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,385 −$1,253 -90%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Jun 12 $485 +$99 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $130 +$1 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 06 $200 +$4 +2%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $400 +$17 +4%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 01 $100 −$19 -19%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 01 $4,355 −$109 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5,571 +$3,295 +59%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? May 27 $844 −$724 -86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $840 +$80 +10%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 23 $340 −$180 -53%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? May 23 $535 −$254 -47%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 23 $978 −$718 -73%
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting May 13 $51 −$49 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 03 $600 +$23 +4%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 03 $1,700 +$63 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May? May 01 $6,383 +$73 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026? May 01 $88 +$12 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $101 +$14 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $445 −$218 -49%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Apr 29 $138 +$13 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Apr 29 $2,152 +$848 +39%
Kash Patel out by April 30? Apr 29 $1,698 +$211 +12%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 26 $3,337 +$136 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $2,675 +$529 +20%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 24 $2,955 +$31 +1%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 24 $49 +$17 +34%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? Apr 23 $120 +$4 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $4,708 +$312 +7%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by June 5? Apr 19 $30 −$1 -4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 18 $10 +$14 +140%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 18 $79 −$10 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 18 $4,520 −$326 -7%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 17 $200 −$83 -42%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 17 $100 −$4 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 17 $1,055 +$9 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 17 $560 −$16 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr 16 $2,000 +$40 +2%
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 16 $186 +$3 +1%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 15 $3,000 +$19 +1%
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 15 $1,000 +$17 +2%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? Apr 13 $6,817 +$47 +1%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $218 −$204 -94%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 11 $1,150 −$150 -13%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 09 $5,176 −$1,084 -21%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 08 $1,560 +$400 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $1,610 10m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $320 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $66 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $300 4h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 19¢ $234 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $132 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $585 3d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? SELL Yes 75¢ $584 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $130 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $130 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1,504 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $800 8d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $27 8d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 8d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 8d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $8 8d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 9d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 65¢ $204 9d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 9d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $17 9d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 9d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 9d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $82 9d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $18 9d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $289 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $2,640 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $3,480 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $284 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $67 12d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 64¢ $200 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.53 · official $2.53 (match) · 1112 history records