Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:00:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c99…6efb other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$811 (-20%) realized −$421 · open −$390
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$49
14 days−$303
30 days−$482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$535
politics 26% −$379
world 16% +$102
weather 10% −$50
tech 2% −$4
finance 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +52.0% +37.6% 75% 67% -11.9%
≤30d 26 +12.8% +2.1% 50% 46% -23.0%
≤90d 26 +12.8% +2.1% 50% 46% -23.0%
all 26 +12.8% +2.1% 50% 46% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 46% -23.0%
10% -7.7% 35% -30.3%
15% -16.6% 31% -37.1%
20% -24.8% 31% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$79 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$438
Realized−$421
Unrealized−$390
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Open positions14
Markets (closed)26 / 40
History coverage23d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 21 $501 −$273 -54%
Will ECDSA.fail get at least 50% ahead of Google’s classified circuit Jun 20 $11 +$30 +269%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $475 +$55 +12%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 19 $455 +$82 +18%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 19 $24 +$26 +107%
FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr? Jun 17 $77 +$43 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $63 +$17 +27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 +$17 +80%
Tucker Carlson federally charged? Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $150 −$122 -81%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $42 +$88 +212%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $52 −$13 -25%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $27 +$97 +357%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$10 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $62 −$40 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$11 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $14 −$13 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 11 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 09 $204 −$133 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Will a candidate win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the f Jun 02 $603 +$69 +12%
Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 01 $255 −$248 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 22¢ $9 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes $110 1h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $13 17h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $18 24h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $53 24h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $3 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 17¢ $118 24h
Will ECDSA.fail get at least 50% ahead of Google’s classified circuit SELL Yes 88¢ $41 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $76 46h
Ebola case in the US by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $94 46h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 23¢ $100 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 2d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $192 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $93 2d
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world SELL Yes 91¢ $27 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 23¢ $299 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 23¢ $16 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $437.77 · official $437.77 (match) · 226 history records