Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:24:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c99…abfd
crypto · 452 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$44 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$44 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses247 / 205
Open positions0
Markets (closed)452 / 452
History coverage85d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 452 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 14 $2 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 13 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 13 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 13 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 10 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 10 $3 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 10 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 10 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 05 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 05 $2 +$1 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -26.2% -33.2% 37% 32% -20.6%
≤30d 19 -26.2% -33.2% 37% 32% -20.6%
≤90d 452 -10.9% -19.4% 55% 47% -12.8%
all 452 -10.9% -19.4% 55% 47% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 47% -12.8%
10% -27.1% 35% -21.1%
15% -34.1% 26% -28.8%
20% -40.6% 18% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 965 history records