Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c98…8212 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate31%8W / 18L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$3
other 19% −$1
politics 18% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 +1.1% -8.5% 67% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 6 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 26 -8.1% -16.9% 31% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 8% -9.4%
10% -24.8% 8% -18.0%
15% -32.1% 8% -26.0%
20% -38.7% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses8 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage216d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 21? May 24 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 23? May 24 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $1 $0 -25%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Mar 25 $22 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $1 $0 +4%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 13 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 02 $1 $0 -33%
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jan 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025–2026 NBA Northwest Divisi Jan 09 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Dec 26 $86 $0 -0%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Dec 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 06 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Nov 28 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Nov 26 $62 $0 -0%
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Almabayev (Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 26 $8 +$4 +52%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Nov 24 $1 $0 -23%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 22 $1 $0 -14%
Will Khaman Maluach win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Nov 20 $0 $0 -67%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Channing Tatum win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Nov 17 $1 $0 -33%
Will FC Heidenheim win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Nov 16 $74 $0 -0%
Will Ryan Reynolds be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 20 Nov 14 $83 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 58m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 28d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 21? BUY No 98¢ $4 28d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 60d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $57 62d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $57 70d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes $1 73d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 80d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $22 83d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 98¢ $22 90d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $34 92d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $34 100d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 103d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 111d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $1 115d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $1 121d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 124d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 131d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 134d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 142d
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $86 148d
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $86 155d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025–2026 NBA Northwest Divisi SELL No 98¢ $40 158d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025–2026 NBA Northwest Divisi BUY No 100¢ $40 166d
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $86 172d
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $86 180d
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $1 182d
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes $1 190d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $2 193d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 197d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records