Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c94…2d22
sports · 368 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$207 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$206 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$206
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses256 / 109
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)365 / 368
History coverage143d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 3 History 365 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$14
14 days+$4
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $5 $0 -9%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 13 $1 $0 +21%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $4 −$1 -25%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $7 +$1 +7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -73%
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Alzon (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -75%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$2 +37%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +22%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $3 $0 +11%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $4 $0 +10%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $10 +$8 +76%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $1 $0 +23%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 10 $2 $0 +6%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $4 $0 +11%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $1 $0 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +18%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 $0 +36%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Leicestershire Foxes vs Northamptonshire S Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 09 $1 $0 +11%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $1 $0 +12%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $1 +$1 +52%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $6 −$1 -16%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 09 $1 $0 +12%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $1 −$1 -79%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1 $0 +10%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $2 $0 +10%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $1 $0 -13%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playo Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% −$206
other 2% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Seattle Mariners 82¢ $6 15m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 66¢ $5 16m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL Atlanta Braves 55¢ $11 32m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 68¢ $5 34m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $5 38m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $5 39m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL St. Louis Cardinals 69¢ $10 42m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 67¢ $10 46m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 91¢ $9 49m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 89¢ $4 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 51¢ $1 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 84¢ $2 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 77¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 16¢ $1 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 78¢ $3 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 64¢ $3 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 22¢ $1 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 72¢ $2 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 77¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 78¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 43¢ $1 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 62¢ $2 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 67¢ $1 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 74¢ $1 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL San Diego Padres 26¢ $0 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 71¢ $1 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 36¢ $2 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 65¢ $1 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 60¢ $1 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 42¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +2.5% -7.2% 78% 42% -1.9%
≤30d 196 -4.9% -14.0% 73% 43% -20.0%
≤90d 299 -4.3% -13.5% 71% 43% -18.3%
all 365 -4.6% -13.7% 70% 45% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 45% -17.6%
10% -22.0% 23% -25.5%
15% -29.5% 11% -32.7%
20% -36.4% 6% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.95 · official $4.95 (match) · 981 history records