Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:17:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c94…ffad
crypto · 79 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$926 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$810 · open −$117
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$266
Realized−$810
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses30 / 47
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage1d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day3309.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 77 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$810
7 days−$810
14 days−$810
30 days−$810
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 76¢ 100¢ $139 $182 +$43 (+31%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 77¢ 86¢ $64 $71 +$7 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 21¢ 14¢ $17 $12 −$5 (-30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $113 $1 −$112 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $236 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $190 −$59 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $254 +$97 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $197 −$62 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $250 +$70 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $109 −$17 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $95 −$23 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $113 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $79 −$12 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $190 +$27 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $268 −$36 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $155 −$86 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $208 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $73 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $114 −$24 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $258 −$41 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $160 +$35 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $143 −$45 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $275 −$49 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $290 −$96 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $259 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $301 −$72 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $138 +$15 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $276 −$17 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $243 −$24 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $330 +$69 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $224 +$101 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $264 +$97 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $160 −$25 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $368 −$44 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $243 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $324 −$73 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $203 −$33 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $192 −$29 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $362 −$47 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $242 −$21 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $141 −$14 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $389 +$38 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $156 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $238 −$27 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $612 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $289 −$77 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $216 −$11 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $299 −$84 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $170 +$29 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $299 +$53 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $247 +$33 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $192 +$75 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $207 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $139 +$9 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$926
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $22 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $15 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $28 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $28 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $27 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $17 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $7 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $9 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -4.1% -13.2% 39% 23% -13.5%
≤30d 77 -4.1% -13.2% 39% 23% -13.5%
≤90d 77 -4.1% -13.2% 39% 23% -13.5%
all 77 -4.1% -13.2% 39% 23% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3309.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 23% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 8% -21.8%
15% -29.1% 6% -29.3%
20% -36.1% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.20 · official $266.18 (match) · 3500 history records