Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c94…7ccd other 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized −$14 · open +$19
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate30%9W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$15
14 days−$36
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$16
sports 30% −$22
crypto 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +0.5% -9.0% 32% 21% -11.0%
≤30d 30 -2.8% -12.0% 30% 20% -13.0%
≤90d 30 -2.8% -12.0% 30% 20% -13.0%
all 30 -2.8% -12.0% 30% 20% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 20% -13.0%
10% -20.4% 13% -21.3%
15% -28.1% 13% -28.9%
20% -35.2% 10% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage7d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 36¢ 44¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 −$2 -20%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -65%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $94 +$15 +16%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$5 -51%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 −$7 -67%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$2 -9%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$2 -15%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $96 +$7 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $97 +$7 +7%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 −$4 -18%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $22 −$14 -62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $82 +$30 +37%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$24 -90%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$15 +711%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$9 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$3 -28%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 +$26 +121%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $81 +$14 +18%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$6 -58%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -48%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $128 +$6 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $45 −$18 -40%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -14%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 −$18 -85%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 −$3 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 36¢ $42 14m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $32 23m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 45¢ $32 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $21 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $63 6h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $3 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 7h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 7h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $19 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $9 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $21 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $93 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $42 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 64¢ $11 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 85¢ $86 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $22 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.95 · official $148.95 (match) · 98 history records