Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c92…db1a crypto 97 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (112 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$36 (-5%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate73%71W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day112.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (112 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -9.7% -18.3% 72% 39% -15.7%
≤30d 97 -9.6% -18.2% 73% 37% -15.5%
≤90d 97 -9.6% -18.2% 73% 37% -15.5%
all 97 -9.6% -18.2% 73% 37% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 37% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 19% -23.6%
15% -33.2% 7% -31.0%
20% -39.7% 3% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses71 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day112.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$13 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$19 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $22 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 254 history records