Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:56:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c8c…e36f
politics · 19 markets active 12h ago
0.0score
−$20,995 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$31,590 · open +$9,902
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$193,803
Realized−$31,590
Unrealized+$9,902
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)11 / 19
History coverage44d
Avg bet$17,918
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 8 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21,700
7 days+$21,700
14 days+$21,700
30 days+$22,304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 85¢ 97¢ $85,750 $98,144 +$12,394 (+14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $48,246 $43,216 −$5,031 (-10%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 96¢ $17,585 $19,298 +$1,713 (+10%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $12,303 $13,490 +$1,187 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 11¢ $10,379 $8,175 −$2,204 (-21%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 48¢ 57¢ $5,497 $6,504 +$1,007 (+18%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 71¢ 82¢ $2,933 $3,393 +$460 (+16%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 68¢ 89¢ $1,208 $1,585 +$377 (+31%)
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? No 26¢ $905 $0 −$905 (-100%)
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? No 47¢ $29,154 $0 −$29,154 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ $13,032 $0 −$13,032 (-100%)
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? Yes 47¢ $17,352 $0 −$17,352 (-100%)
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? Yes 27¢ $1,276 $0 −$1,276 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $48,299 +$21,700 +45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $30,102 −$13,771 -46%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $7,149 +$4,715 +66%
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se May 27 $1,441 +$954 +66%
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen May 27 $1,570 +$1,036 +66%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $7,461 +$4,993 +67%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $669 +$2,676 +400%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $31,757 −$31,102 -98%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 04 $21,225 −$20,611 -97%
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 03 $1,298 −$1,276 -98%
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 03 $905 −$905 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 55% −$23,569
world 27% −$21,006
other 18% +$22,887
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $335 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $13 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1,127 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $301 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $77 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $52 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $515 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $28 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $35 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $13 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $52 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $26 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $52 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $789 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $49 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $698 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $448 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $196 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $16 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $0 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $0 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +44.9% +31.1% 100% 100% +31.1%
≤30d 7 +87.1% +69.3% 86% 86% +16.7%
≤90d 11 +19.1% +7.8% 55% 55% -27.6%
all 11 +19.1% +7.8% 55% 55% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.8% 55% -27.6%
10% -2.6% 55% -34.5%
15% ← realistic here -12.0% 55% -40.9%
20% -20.6% 45% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193,803.43 · official $201,561.94 · 1470 history records