trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $48,299 | +$21,700 | +45% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 29 | $30,102 | −$13,771 | -46% |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | May 27 | $7,149 | +$4,715 | +66% |
| Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se | May 27 | $1,441 | +$954 | +66% |
| Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen | May 27 | $1,570 | +$1,036 | +66% |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | May 27 | $7,461 | +$4,993 | +67% |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | May 20 | $669 | +$2,676 | +400% |
| Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W | May 04 | $31,757 | −$31,102 | -98% |
| Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the | May 04 | $21,225 | −$20,611 | -97% |
| Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? | May 03 | $1,298 | −$1,276 | -98% |
| Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? | May 03 | $905 | −$905 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +44.9% | +31.1% | 100% | 100% | +31.1% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +87.1% | +69.3% | 86% | 86% | +16.7% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +19.1% | +7.8% | 55% | 55% | -27.6% |
| all | 11 | +19.1% | +7.8% | 55% | 55% | -27.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +7.8% | 55% | -27.6% |
| 10% | -2.6% | 55% | -34.5% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -12.0% | 55% | -40.9% |
| 20% | -20.6% | 45% | -46.7% |