Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

4C 0x4c8c…4495 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$403 (-10%) realized −$227 · open −$176

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%4W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$301per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$20est.

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$949now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$405

14 days−$405

30 days−$405

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-19.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-10.9%	-19.4%	36%	36%	-25.4%
≤30d	11	-10.9%	-19.4%	36%	36%	-25.4%
≤90d	11	-10.9%	-19.4%	36%	36%	-25.4%
all	12	-10.8%	-19.3%	33%	33%	-25.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-19.3%	33%	-25.1%
10%	-27.0%	33%	-32.3%
15%	-34.1%	33%	-38.8%
20%	-40.5%	25%	-44.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 72% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +46% → late -67% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$272 vs −$188 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.72 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage

Net worth$949

Realized−$227

Unrealized−$176

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses4 / 8

Est. fees paid−$20

Open positions2

Markets (closed)12 / 14

History coverage92d

Avg bet$301

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$632	$627	−$5 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	65¢	42¢	$494	$323	−$171 (-35%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$102	−$100	-98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner	Jun 14	$102	+$99	+97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Jun 14	$102	−$100	-98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Jun 14	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$201	−$96	-48%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Jun 13	$78	−$76	-98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	Jun 13	$102	−$23	-23%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$1,006	−$1,000	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$102	+$115	+113%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 12	$313	+$781	+249%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$219	+$95	+44%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B	Mar 17	$99	−$10	-10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	65¢	$499	42m
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$640	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	91¢	$641	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$547	2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	17¢	$102	3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner	SELL Bilibili Gaming	89¢	$200	3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BUY Bilibili Gaming	44¢	$102	3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner	BUY Top Esports	35¢	$102	3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner	BUY Top Esports	38¢	$102	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	20¢	$98	3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$78	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	18¢	$98	3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	SELL EDward Gaming	36¢	$78	4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	BUY EDward Gaming	45¢	$102	4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	81¢	$1,006	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	18¢	$102	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$217	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	46¢	$102	4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,094	4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$313	5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$219	6d
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B	SELL JD Gaming	9¢	$89	92d
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B	BUY JD Gaming	10¢	$99	92d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $949.23 · official $972.01 · 24 history records