Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:30:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4C 0x4c8b…b282 crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,760 (+28%) realized +$1,729 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$417per market
Trades / day37.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$1,696
sports 12% +$13
crypto 1% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +42.3% +28.7% 69% 62% +18.8%
≤30d 13 +42.3% +28.7% 69% 62% +18.8%
≤90d 13 +42.3% +28.7% 69% 62% +18.8%
all 13 +42.3% +28.7% 69% 62% +18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.7% 62% +18.8%
10% ← realistic here +16.4% 54% +7.4%
15% +5.1% 54% -3.0%
20% -5.2% 46% -12.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +85% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$254 vs −$146 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.92 per $1 lost it wins $3.92
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$1,729
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$417
Trades / day37.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 56¢ 90¢ $50 $81 +$31 (+62%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Down 46¢ 46¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +101%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,036 +$1,449 +71%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $800 −$568 -71%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $758 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,829 +$747 +41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $200 +$37 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 0m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 5m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $346 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 24m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 74¢ $193 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,429 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $501 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $608 18h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 89¢ $771 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $33 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 19h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 82¢ $55 19h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 81¢ $101 19h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $602 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.09 · official $95.52 (match) · 48 history records