Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:39:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c89…9c30 sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$861 (-49%) realized −$860 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$936
other 8% −$9
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -39.9% -45.6% 50% 20% -64.8%
≤30d 10 -39.9% -45.6% 50% 20% -64.8%
≤90d 10 -39.9% -45.6% 50% 20% -64.8%
all 10 -39.9% -45.6% 50% 20% -64.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.6% 20% -64.8%
10% ← realistic here -50.8% 10% -68.2%
15% -55.5% 0% -71.3%
20% -59.9% 0% -74.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$199 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized−$860
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 92¢ $220 $219 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $111 +$11 +10%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -89%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 +$8 +26%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $100 −$93 -93%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $110 +$17 +15%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $103 +$7 +7%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $28 −$26 -91%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $965 −$869 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $220 10m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $122 16m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $111 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $38 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 SELL Over 6¢ $7 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $4 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $100 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 94¢ $94 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $126 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $110 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $110 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $7 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $96 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 10¢ $96 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $28 23h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $965 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.82 · official $218.82 (match) · 22 history records