Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:05:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c88…6f34 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$4
other 21% −$2
sports 3% −$3
weather 1% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.1% -7.7% 75% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 8 +5.4% -4.6% 62% 12% -8.0%
≤90d 17 -3.6% -12.8% 59% 6% -8.9%
all 31 -4.2% -13.3% 52% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 3% -9.7%
10% -21.6% 3% -18.4%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage474d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $40 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $17 +$1 +6%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $8 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $43 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $6 +$2 +33%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $42 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $17 −$1 -8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $128 +$1 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $48 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $43 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $46 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $47 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $46 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 24 $7 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 22 $11 −$4 -33%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? May 20 $11 $0 -2%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $12 $0 +3%
Will the next Pope be from South America? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or below on March 20? Mar 21 $11 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 19 $12 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $10 $0 +3%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 13 $1 $0 -20%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 09 $15 −$3 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $10 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $31 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 41h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 41h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $8 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $50 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $50 2d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $45 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $11 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $34 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $7 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $0 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $5 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $24 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $18 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $42 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $17 30d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 30d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 30d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $43 30d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $3 30d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $21 30d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $19 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records