Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c87…48e7 other 233 markets active 2d ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$416 (-8%) realized −$416 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate60%138W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$21
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$261
world 3% −$46
politics 3% −$96
finance 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$2
economics 1% −$3
sports 1% −$7
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +51.2% +36.8% 100% 50% +42.7%
≤30d 5 +28.0% +15.8% 100% 40% +1.4%
≤90d 12 +10.4% -0.1% 75% 50% -0.5%
all 231 -10.5% -19.0% 60% 22% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 22% -16.7%
10% -26.8% 16% -24.7%
15% -33.8% 13% -32.0%
20% -40.3% 9% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$416
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses138 / 93
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)231 / 233
History coverage168d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December? No 96¢ 96¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June? Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Jun 11 $21 +$21 +100%
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? Jun 10 $1 $0 +30%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June? Jun 06 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $11 −$10 -95%
BNB Up or Down on May 17? May 18 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17? May 18 $15 +$10 +65%
ITF Luan: Alina Tikhonova vs JiaYi Wang May 17 $1 +$1 +50%
ITF Nakhon Pathom: Gyeong Seo Lee vs Anchisa Chanta May 17 $6 −$4 -59%
ITF Andong: Hoyoung Roh vs Keisuke Saitoh May 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 17 $5 +$6 +117%
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026? Mar 12 $72 +$20 +28%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 9? Mar 10 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 08 $66 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 08 $77 −$17 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 08 $200 −$31 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 07 $260 −$192 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $245 +$9 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $162 −$21 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $145 +$4 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 04 $158 −$158 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 04 $97 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 04 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 04 $68 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 03 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $258 +$7 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 202 Mar 03 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026 Mar 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026 Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said during the first episod Mar 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%? Mar 03 $2 −$1 -68%
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%? Mar 03 $9 −$5 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during the State of the Union address? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026? Mar 03 $8 −$8 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Mar 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 20 Mar 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? Mar 03 $6 −$6 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Mar 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026 Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 03 $40 −$20 -49%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Mar 03 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 03 $38 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 03 $48 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June? SELL No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December? BUY No 96¢ $100 3d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? SELL Yes 45¢ $21 6d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? SELL Yes 41¢ $20 6d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 7d
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 7d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June? BUY No 97¢ $16 9d
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 9d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? SELL No 91¢ $102 9d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June? SELL No 99¢ $106 11d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? BUY No 89¢ $100 19d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 28d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June? BUY No 93¢ $100 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18? BUY Up 25¢ $11 30d
BNB Up or Down on May 17? BUY Down 64¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17? BUY Down 58¢ $10 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17? BUY Down 61¢ $5 31d
ITF Luan: Alina Tikhonova vs JiaYi Wang BUY Alina Tikhonova 66¢ $1 31d
ITF Nakhon Pathom: Gyeong Seo Lee vs Anchisa Chanta BUY Anchisa Chanta 45¢ $4 31d
ITF Andong: Hoyoung Roh vs Keisuke Saitoh BUY Hoyoung Roh 9¢ $1 31d
ITF Andong: Hoyoung Roh vs Keisuke Saitoh BUY Hoyoung Roh 33¢ $3 31d
ITF Nakhon Pathom: Gyeong Seo Lee vs Anchisa Chanta SELL Gyeong Seo Lee 47¢ $3 31d
ITF Nakhon Pathom: Gyeong Seo Lee vs Anchisa Chanta BUY Gyeong Seo Lee 35¢ $3 31d
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $20 97d
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $10 97d
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $38 97d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 9? BUY Down 96¢ $19 100d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $67 101d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $60 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.20 · official $102.20 (match) · 604 history records