Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:20:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c85…597a world 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%17W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$3
other 28% −$7
crypto 7% $0
sports 5% $0
politics 4% +$1
tech 3% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.3% -9.2% 38% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 17 -0.3% -9.8% 35% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 26 -0.4% -9.9% 38% 0% -9.9%
all 57 -1.2% -10.6% 30% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -10.3%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses17 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage290d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 87¢ 87¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $25 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $24 $0 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $27 +$1 +2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $24 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $24 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $24 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $24 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $24 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $25 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $45 −$4 -9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $54 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $52 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $11 −$1 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $24 +$2 +10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $27 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $14 −$1 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Jan 31 $25 −$7 -30%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Nov 25 $8 $0 +3%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $8 +$1 +7%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $8 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $7 +$1 +10%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $3 $0 -8%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Sep 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 19 $7 $0 +2%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 16 $1 $0 -20%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting? Sep 12 $2 $0 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $25 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $12 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $14 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $25 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $9 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 14h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $15 17h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $9 17h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $24 20h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 42h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 43h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 43h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $27 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $27 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $24 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $24 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $15 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $10 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $24 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $4 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $20 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $24 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $2 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $24 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.23 · official $25.23 (match) · 192 history records