Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:50:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c81…9d57
weather · 94 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$15 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$79
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses15 / 77
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage55d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 2 History 92 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$11
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 3? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? No 99¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on May 2? No 98¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? No 94¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June 14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 21? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on May 2? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 27? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on April 27? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 3? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or higher on April 26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 22? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on April 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 22? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8? No 90¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 7? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 7? Jun 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 5? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 03 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Robert Menendez Jr. be the Democratic nominee for NJ-08? Jun 03 $12 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Danilo Barbosa da Silva be included in Brazil's official 2026 Wor Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 31? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C or below on May 3 Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between May 30 $14 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on May 29? May 30 $16 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $14 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 29? May 30 $13 −$9 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on May 27? May 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 27? May 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? May 20 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 17? May 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 16? May 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 16? May 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 16? May 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 15? May 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on May May 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 14? May 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 6? May 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on May 6? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 6? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 6? May 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on May 5? May 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 6? May 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 5? May 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on May 5? May 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 5? May 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 5? May 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will "Thrash" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? May 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C on May 4? May 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 4? May 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 4? May 04 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 88% −$12
other 6% −$10
politics 3% +$2
culture 2% $0
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $14 23h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 46h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $14 5d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 90¢ $12 6d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $11 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 7? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 7? BUY No 98¢ $14 7d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 7? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 7? BUY No 98¢ $11 8d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 6? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 6? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 6? BUY No 98¢ $11 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 5? BUY No 2¢ $0 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 5? BUY Yes 98¢ $14 9d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 4? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 4? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 4? BUY No 98¢ $10 10d
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 10d
Will Robert Menendez Jr. be the Democratic nominee for NJ-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 11d
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? BUY Yes 94¢ $11 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -25.1% -32.2% 0% 0% -22.2%
≤30d 33 -7.4% -16.2% 18% 0% -13.4%
≤90d 92 -27.5% -34.4% 16% 0% -11.6%
all 92 -27.5% -34.4% 16% 0% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 0% -11.6%
10% -40.7% 0% -20.0%
15% -46.4% 0% -27.8%
20% -51.6% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.49 · official $79.49 (match) · 285 history records