Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:02:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4C 0x4c80…4c86 crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 504d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate84%41W / 8L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$2
politics 15% $0
other 14% $0
tech 9% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 49 +0.3% -9.3% 84% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.94 per $1 lost it wins $5.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

504d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses41 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage504d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $62 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? May 04 $39 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? Feb 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 04 $17 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? Oct 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 02 $17 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 02 $46 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 02 $16 +$1 +3%
Will Solana reach $200 in June? Jul 02 $24 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 150% and 200% on April 3 May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? May 04 $8 $0 +3%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 04 $9 $0 +1%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Trump severs ties with Ukraine before May? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentar Apr 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 15 $26 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 10 $37 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the second most seats in the next Ca Mar 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Davis win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Feb 12 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $62 29d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? BUY No 100¢ $39 62d
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 92d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $40 92d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $21 120d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $34 122d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $19 150d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $47 150d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $8 181d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $14 181d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $42 181d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $19 210d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $46 212d
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? BUY No 99¢ $17 241d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $30 242d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? BUY No 100¢ $20 272d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $34 273d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $5 300d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $22 300d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $39 302d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $5 332d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 333d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $46 334d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $16 366d
Will Solana reach $200 in June? BUY No 99¢ $24 366d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 392d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 393d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 395d
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? BUY No 100¢ $9 423d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.50 · official $55.50 (match) · 104 history records