Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4C 0x4c7f…0fdc crypto 672 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$289 (+2%) realized +$289 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate73%489W / 183L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$284
sports 1% −$39
other 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -12.6% -20.9% 0% 0% -20.9%
≤30d 34 -3.6% -12.8% 38% 38% -18.8%
≤90d 463 +0.6% -9.0% 81% 45% -12.5%
all 672 +5.3% -4.8% 73% 46% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 46% -7.9%
10% -13.9% 29% -16.7%
15% -22.2% 22% -24.8%
20% -29.8% 15% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$19 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$289
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses489 / 183
Open positions0
Markets (closed)672 / 672
History coverage176d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 672 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 17 $50 −$10 -20%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $50 −$2 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 22 $10 +$6 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 22 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 21 $11 +$80 +756%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 21 $8 +$10 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 21 $10 +$7 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 21 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 21 $10 +$10 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 21 $10 +$13 +133%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 21 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 21 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 20 $10 +$12 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 20 $10 +$14 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 20 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 05 $50 +$46 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 01 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 01 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 01 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Apr 01 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 01 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Apr 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 01 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 01 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 01 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 01 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Apr 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 57¢ $40 1h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 65¢ $48 1h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 70¢ $50 5d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $50 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 25d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 25d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 25d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 26d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 27d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 27d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 27d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $7 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 27d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 27d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 27d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 27d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 27d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 27d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 27d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1864 history records