Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4C 0x4c7d…c6fb sports 217 markets active 0h ago coverage 926d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$24 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%57W / 128L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$8
sports 33% +$25
politics 20% −$16
economics 6% −$8
crypto 1% −$15
world 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -18.8% -26.5% 36% 36% -30.6%
≤30d 26 -14.0% -22.2% 38% 38% -8.4%
≤90d 26 -14.0% -22.2% 38% 38% -8.4%
all 185 -1.5% -10.8% 31% 25% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 25% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 22% -18.2%
15% -27.2% 18% -26.1%
20% -34.3% 15% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

926d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses57 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions32
Markets (closed)185 / 217
History coverage926d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 81¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+55%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? No 82¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+22%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 79¢ 83¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 52¢ 56¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 68¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? No 31¢ 30¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 69¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 25¢ 24¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 73¢ 67¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 21¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 95¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+127%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +22%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $5 +$3 +49%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 16 $4 +$9 +190%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$5 -43%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $6 −$3 -55%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -22%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $3 +$1 +35%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -92%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $4 +$1 +42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -35%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $7 −$4 -57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$5 +109%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +16%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +63%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers May 19 $27 +$28 +105%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $15 −$15 -100%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa Mar 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Rockets vs. Thunder Feb 25 $12 +$15 +122%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $997 −$1 -0%
Pacers vs. Bucks Feb 07 $23 +$24 +104%
Hornets vs. Hawks Feb 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 06 $960 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 05 $1,120 −$1 -0%
Penguins vs. Sabres Feb 05 $45 −$45 -100%
Bulls vs. Bucks Feb 05 $18 +$26 +138%
Sabres vs. Panthers Feb 04 $19 +$23 +117%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 04 $1,950 −$2 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Raptors Feb 04 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 03 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 02 $2,120 −$2 -0%
Heat vs. Bulls Jan 31 $22 +$23 +106%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 31 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Avalanche vs. Red Wings Jan 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Kings vs. Flyers Jan 31 $19 −$19 -100%
Raptors vs. Magic Jan 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 29 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards Jan 29 $6 +$16 +257%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 28 $2,029 −$2 -0%
Bulls vs. Pacers Jan 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $3 9m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $2 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $2 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $3 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 66¢ $3 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $3 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $1 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $3 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $1 3h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 77¢ $2 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $3 3h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL Yes 44¢ $2 3h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 61¢ $3 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 40¢ $4 3h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL Yes 48¢ $2 3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $4 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 4h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 34¢ $3 4h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 34¢ $1 5h
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 7¢ $4 5h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 7¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.49 · official $139.30 (match) · 512 history records