Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:04:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c7a…356a other 246 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 234L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$28
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$40
sports 22% −$19
politics 9% −$8
economics 6% −$9
crypto 6% −$4
culture 6% −$6
world 4% −$5
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 245 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)245 / 246
History coverage135d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $494 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $114 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $159 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $1,143 −$3 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 16 $476 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $126 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $335 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $438 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $117 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $205 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $637 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $145 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $585 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $803 −$2 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $751 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $160 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $439 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $313 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $149 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $127 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $225 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $252 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $131 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $313 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $437 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $61 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $373 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $132 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $283 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $386 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 1h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 2h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 5h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 7h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 11h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 12h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 14h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $55 15h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 17h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $55 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $55 25h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 27h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 28h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $55 30h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $55 31h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 33h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 35h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 36h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 37h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $35 39h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $35 40h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 42h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 44h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $55 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $56 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.47 · official $54.47 (match) · 1391 history records