Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:11:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c79…a3d9
crypto · 67 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$211 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$184 · open −$28
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$551
Realized−$184
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses35 / 15
Open positions17
Markets (closed)50 / 67
History coverage11d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 17 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$184
7 days−$184
14 days−$184
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $141 $138 −$3 (-2%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 33¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 62¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+18%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $71 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $42 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $112 −$38 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $59 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $136 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $112 +$20 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $45 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$18 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $84 −$82 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $65 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $42 −$13 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $67 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $42 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $81 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $86 +$19 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $24 −$8 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $46 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $76 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $96 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $61 +$13 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $35 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$22 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $56 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$19 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $76 +$17 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $101 −$47 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $76 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $127 −$12 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $86 +$16 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$16 +32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 −$20 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 82% −$213
other 17% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -4.1% -13.2% 70% 48% -15.1%
≤30d 50 -4.1% -13.2% 70% 48% -15.1%
≤90d 50 -4.1% -13.2% 70% 48% -15.1%
all 50 -4.1% -13.2% 70% 48% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 48% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 26% -23.2%
15% -29.1% 10% -30.6%
20% -36.1% 6% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $551.10 · official $578.11 · 277 history records