Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:38:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c79…bec3 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 286d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%12W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$3
other 21% +$1
politics 12% $0
sports 9% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.6% -11.0% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 16 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 6% -10.2%
≤90d 16 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 6% -10.2%
all 39 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

286d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses12 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage286d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 75¢ 74¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $32 −$1 -4%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $13 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $3 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 -8%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $26 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $31 −$1 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $33 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $69 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Sep 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Maria Steen win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 09 $32 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $34 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $31 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $32 26h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $19 30h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $12 30h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $31 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $13 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $13 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $10 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $21 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $31 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $17 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $17 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $0 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $4 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $10 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $14 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.52 · official $33.52 (match) · 99 history records