Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:54:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c78…4841
crypto · 382 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$594 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$594 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$594
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses224 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)380 / 382
History coverage16d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day78.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 2 History 380 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days−$86
14 days−$537
30 days−$594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $251 $0 −$251 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $322 $0 −$322 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $131 $0 −$131 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$21 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$36 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $53 +$53 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$24 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$17 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$36 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$16 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$43 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$18 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $44 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$13 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $123 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$5 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $64 −$62 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $131 −$67 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$18 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $125 +$56 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $64 +$30 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $136 −$72 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $127 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $69 −$40 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $83 −$17 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $41 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $70 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $56 +$40 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $44 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $155 +$61 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $42 −$27 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $92 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$6 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $63 +$36 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$9 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$5 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$27 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $37 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$595
sports 1% +$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $78 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $106 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $37 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $7 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $32 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 30m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 44m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $78 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -3.0% -12.2% 53% 43% -12.1%
≤30d 380 -2.5% -11.8% 59% 42% -11.0%
≤90d 380 -2.5% -11.8% 59% 42% -11.0%
all 380 -2.5% -11.8% 59% 42% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover78.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 42% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 28% -19.5%
15% -28.0% 18% -27.3%
20% -35.0% 13% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.95 · official $2.95 (match) · 1280 history records