Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:39:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c74…966c other 227 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 213L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$20
14 days−$25
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$48
sports 22% −$21
politics 7% −$6
economics 7% −$6
culture 7% −$8
crypto 7% +$50
world 3% −$2
finance 1% −$1
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 56 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 +0.1% -9.4% 4% 1% -9.6%
all 227 +0.0% -9.5% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×8.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 213
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)227 / 227
History coverage127d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 227 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $349 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $381 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $264 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $797 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $247 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $748 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $293 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $322 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $515 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $656 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $603 −$2 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $350 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $182 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $215 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $282 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $650 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $507 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 10 $541 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $187 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? May 30 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 30 $237 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $207 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $793 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $209 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $508 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $421 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 24 $491 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 21 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $102 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $85 1h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $85 2h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $85 7h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $85 9h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $85 10h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $85 12h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $85 13h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $85 14h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $85 19h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $85 21h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $85 23h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $85 24h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $85 25h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $86 27h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $86 44h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $86 45h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $86 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $86 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $86 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $86 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $86 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $86 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $86 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $87 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $87 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $87 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $87 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $87 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $87 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $87 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1247 history records