Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c74…3c0d sports 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,250 (+2%) realized +$1,254 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%25W / 38L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$927per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$1,226est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$391
7 days−$176
14 days−$250
30 days−$2,827
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$2,306
other 20% −$2,084
crypto 0% −$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -7.2% -16.0% 30% 30% -10.8%
≤30d 27 -11.5% -19.9% 33% 30% -19.2%
≤90d 63 -10.9% -19.4% 40% 30% -8.6%
all 63 -10.9% -19.4% 40% 30% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 30% -8.6%
10% -27.1% 24% -17.4%
15% -34.1% 24% -25.3%
20% -40.6% 17% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$1,020) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$472 vs −$305 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$1,254
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses25 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$1,226
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage58d
Avg bet$927
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Caio Borralho fight Joe Pyfer next? No 88¢ 52¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-41%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski Jan Choinski 13¢ 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $2,750 −$242 -9%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $1,850 −$34 -2%
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 22 $204 −$115 -56%
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Jun 21 $60 −$1 -2%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $183 −$180 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $101 +$37 +37%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $708 +$421 +60%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $2,787 −$743 -27%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $1,756 −$208 -12%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $2,257 +$890 +39%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $520 −$18 -4%
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet Jun 16 $1,020 +$169 +17%
Mark Lajal vs. Ugo Blanchet: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $1,700 −$345 -20%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $715 −$703 -98%
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 09 $665 +$1,363 +205%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $2,600 −$536 -21%
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth Jun 09 $265 −$6 -2%
Foggia: Varvara Lepchenko vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 03 $168 −$168 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $741 −$741 -100%
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis May 30 $1,425 +$25 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Victor Henry vs. Bryce Mitchell (Bantamweight, Main C May 28 $161 −$9 -6%
Roland Garros WTA: Completed Match: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang May 27 $3 +$2 +79%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang May 27 $1,003 +$117 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $1,103 −$1,089 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin May 25 $508 −$500 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances Tiafoe May 25 $1,100 −$213 -19%
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 1.5 May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien May 23 $506 +$322 +64%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $253 −$250 -99%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 23 $122 +$122 +99%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Jaqueline Cristian May 22 $1,219 −$330 -27%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 21 $103 −$100 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Ch May 21 $32 −$31 -98%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Yasmine Kabbaj May 21 $608 −$150 -25%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik May 21 $102 +$297 +291%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 May 21 $141 +$116 +82%
Geneva Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Alex Michelsen May 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 May 20 $102 +$453 +442%
Geneva Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Raphael Collignon May 19 $1,064 −$233 -22%
Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud May 19 $3,152 −$2,148 -68%
Lilian Marmousez vs. Federico Bondioli: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 19 $10 +$1 +7%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 May 19 $99 +$1 +1%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 May 19 $226 +$2 +1%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 19 $354 +$4 +1%
Cervia: Lilian Marmousez vs Federico Bondioli May 19 $527 +$11 +2%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $10,014 −$264 -3%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Madison Keys vs Cristina Bucsa May 18 $1,630 +$664 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova SELL Gabriela Ruse 32¢ $2,508 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro SELL Eva Lys 37¢ $1,816 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 13¢ $0 5h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 34¢ $884 7h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 34¢ $39 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 34¢ $12 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 34¢ $17 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 34¢ $8 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 34¢ $41 8h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 34¢ $5 9h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 34¢ $11 9h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 34¢ $182 9h
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL Yes 13¢ $89 12h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 35¢ $14 13h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 35¢ $377 14h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 35¢ $8 14h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 35¢ $323 14h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 35¢ $328 14h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 34¢ $2 17h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 34¢ $2 17h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 34¢ $2 17h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 34¢ $3 17h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 34¢ $2 17h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 34¢ $2 17h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 34¢ $2 17h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 34¢ $3 17h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 34¢ $1 17h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 34¢ $28 17h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 34¢ $421 17h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 34¢ $35 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.73 · official $5.73 (match) · 494 history records