Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:52:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4C 0x4c72…8eb4 sports 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 749d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$183 (-6%) realized −$262 · open +$79
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%71W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$33
other 34% −$4
politics 3% +$19
crypto 3% −$5
world 3% −$80
economics 1% −$1
tech 0% −$2
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +18.1% +6.9% 100% 100% +6.9%
≤90d 29 -7.4% -16.2% 59% 59% -4.3%
all 164 -20.5% -28.1% 43% 42% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 42% -15.7%
10% -34.9% 33% -23.8%
15% -41.2% 24% -31.1%
20% -47.0% 18% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

749d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$262
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses71 / 93
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)164 / 169
History coverage749d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 89¢ 97¢ $53 $58 +$5 (+9%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ $0 $38 +$38 (+0%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? No 84¢ $0 $35 +$35 (+0%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 72¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-04? Jun 08 $61 +$11 +18%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $12 +$8 +70%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto end in a draw? May 03 $42 +$17 +42%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-16? May 03 $54 +$6 +11%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Rangers vs. Lightning Apr 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $11 +$2 +23%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 15 $20 +$5 +27%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 15 $20 +$7 +34%
Raptors vs. Celtics Apr 15 $51 +$9 +18%
Suns vs. Bulls Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Hornets vs. Timberwolves Apr 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 05 $33 −$33 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 05 $40 +$20 +50%
Suns vs. Hornets Apr 05 $41 +$19 +46%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Kraken vs. Lightning Apr 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Kings vs. Raptors Apr 02 $25 −$25 -100%
76ers vs. Wizards Apr 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 02 $27 −$27 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Apr 01 $14 +$41 +300%
Magic vs. Raptors Apr 01 $32 +$28 +89%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 29 $1 $0 +30%
Knicks vs. Hornets Mar 29 $32 +$28 +85%
Kings vs. Magic Mar 29 $54 +$6 +11%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 26 $19 +$21 +108%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 25 $32 +$8 +25%
Spurs vs. Heat Mar 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 24 $6 +$7 +108%
Bucks vs. Clippers Mar 24 $34 +$6 +16%
Nets vs. Trail Blazers Mar 24 $36 +$4 +11%
Hawks vs. Bucks Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Mar 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Mavericks vs. Nets Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Celtics vs. Suns Mar 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Thunder vs. Raptors Mar 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Celtics vs. Bucks Mar 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10? Mar 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Mar 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Knicks vs. Bucks Mar 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Nets Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-10? Mar 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Pistons vs. Nets Mar 23 $20 −$9 -46%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 23 $24 +$16 +64%
Will Atalanta BC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Mar 23 $31 +$9 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $16 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $16 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ $39 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 72¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $54 2h
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-04? BUY No 79¢ $48 48d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-04? SELL Yes 21¢ $12 48d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 48d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 58¢ $12 50d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-16? BUY No 90¢ $54 66d
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $42 66d
Warriors vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 67¢ $5 68d
Rangers vs. Lightning BUY Lightning 52¢ $31 68d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY No 81¢ $11 68d
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 74¢ $10 76d
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 74¢ $10 76d
76ers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $10 76d
76ers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $10 76d
Raptors vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $31 77d
Suns vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 17¢ $10 77d
Raptors vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 82¢ $20 77d
Hornets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 43¢ $26 78d
Timberwolves vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 66¢ $40 80d
Spurs vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 55¢ $33 80d
Suns vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 68¢ $41 80d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 72¢ $3 81d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 72¢ $3 81d
Kings vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 86¢ $25 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.99 · official $137.99 (match) · 426 history records