Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c72…ccc9
crypto · 46 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$7 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses21 / 20
Open positions5
Markets (closed)41 / 46
History coverage86d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 5 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $37 +$23 +64%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 19 $11 −$4 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 19 $5 +$6 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 19 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $30 −$26 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 19 $1 $0 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 19 $1 $0 -42%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 19 $10 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 19 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 19 $1 $0 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 19 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 19 $3 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 19 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 19 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 19 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 19 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 19 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 19 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 19 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 19 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 19 $2 $0 -4%
Senators vs. Capitals Mar 19 $1 $0 -45%
Stars vs. Avalanche Mar 19 $1 $0 -0%
Flyers vs. Ducks Mar 19 $3 $0 -2%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $3 +$2 +51%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $8 +$3 +39%
FC Bayern München vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5 Mar 18 $1 +$3 +300%
Warriors vs. Celtics Mar 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $6 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 18 $7 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Back to Back (BO3) - CCT South Ame Mar 18 $10 −$1 -12%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs L1ga Team (BO3) - CCT Playoffs Mar 18 $8 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Back to Back - Map 1 Winner Mar 18 $1 $0 -16%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Mar 18 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $3 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 46% +$7
other 29% −$18
politics 13% +$23
sports 12% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 13d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 17¢ $20 13d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 15d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 15d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 15d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 8¢ $37 29d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $8 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $11 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $11 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $5 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 86d
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-03-18? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 86d
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 86d
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 86d
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 86d
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 86d
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 86d
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 86d
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $28 86d
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +46.8% +32.9% 100% 100% +44.8%
≤30d 2 +46.8% +32.9% 100% 100% +44.8%
≤90d 41 +4.7% -5.2% 51% 37% -6.7%
all 41 +4.7% -5.2% 51% 37% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 37% -6.7%
10% -14.3% 32% -15.6%
15% -22.6% 29% -23.8%
20% -30.2% 17% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.92 · official $27.92 (match) · 126 history records