Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:14:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4C 0x4c72…3bee sports 1305 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$69 (+1%) realized +$69 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate69%903W / 400L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$10
14 days−$4
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 72% +$59
sports 21% +$15
crypto 6% −$20
other 1% +$4
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -8.8% -17.4% 61% 61% -24.5%
≤30d 309 -14.8% -22.9% 59% 53% -21.4%
≤90d 805 -3.4% -12.6% 66% 42% -9.2%
all 1303 -0.7% -10.1% 69% 43% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 43% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 26% -17.4%
15% -26.6% 16% -25.4%
20% -33.8% 10% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses903 / 400
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1303 / 1305
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Roman Safiullin 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Martin Landaluce 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$1 +48%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $3 +$2 +97%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $1 +$1 +83%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $1 +$1 +51%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $1 +$1 +57%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: S Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $1 +$1 +53%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 11 $1 +$1 +53%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $1 $0 +34%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $1 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $1 $0 +23%
Valorant: Dplus vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 03 $1 $0 +19%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $1 $0 +25%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $1 $0 +23%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 03 $1 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 66¢ $1 16m
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 62¢ $2 51m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 66¢ $1 24h
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) SELL T1 100¢ $4 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 39¢ $1 25h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) SELL T1 99¢ $7 25h
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 67¢ $3 25h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) BUY T1 75¢ $5 32h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 46¢ $2 47h
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) SELL Team WE 100¢ $5 47h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 65¢ $1 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 81¢ $1 47h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 13¢ $1 2d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 73¢ $2 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $2 2d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) BUY Team WE 50¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A BUY STATE 75¢ $1 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 53¢ $1 2d
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Filippo Romano 54¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 74¢ $1 2d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 59¢ $1 2d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 76¢ $1 2d
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Daniel Galan 60¢ $1 2d
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette SELL Magda Linette 100¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 99¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 83¢ $1 2d
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette BUY Magda Linette 79¢ $1 2d
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko SELL Vitaliy Sachko 97¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie SELL Virtus.pro 97¢ $2 2d
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Vitaliy Sachko 77¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.48 · official $2.48 (match) · 3500 history records