Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:05:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c6f…063e
crypto · 22 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$22 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$22 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage3d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 3 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $38 −$26 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 64% +$4
politics 34% −$26
other 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $9 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 30m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 34m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 34m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $9 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $6 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $6 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +0.2% -9.4% 63% 47% -23.5%
≤30d 19 +0.2% -9.4% 63% 47% -23.5%
≤90d 19 +0.2% -9.4% 63% 47% -23.5%
all 19 +0.2% -9.4% 63% 47% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 47% -23.5%
10% -18.0% 42% -30.8%
15% -25.9% 37% -37.5%
20% -33.2% 26% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.99 · official $2.99 (match) · 47 history records